NFL Conference Championship Predictions

The penultimate week of the season has finally arrived. Twice during the season, in my Mid-Season Report and again near the end of the season, I predicted who would appear in the conference title games, and I was right the second time. (In my mid-season report, I picked the AFC game correctly, but for the NFC, I did not update my predictions after revising my predicted placements.)

Onto this week.

Falcons @ Eagles
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The Falcons have one weapon: running back Michael Vick and his able backup Warrick Dunn. Take away their running game and you take away the Falcons. Taking away Vick has the added advantage of creating turnovers because of his propensity to fumble. The Eagle defense ranked tenth in the league in forced fumbles and tenth overall, but only #16 against the rush. Both teams feature strong defenses. The Eagles allowed fewer points than anyone in the NFC, and the Falcons had more quarterback sacks than anyone in the league. With T.O. out, the biggest weapon the Eagles have is running back Michael Westbrook, and the Falcons are solid against the run. In the end, the difference will be the experience of the Eagles and the fact that they are playing at home. The Falcons are a dome team, so playing outdoors in the cold and elements should have an impact on them. (Of course, they were the first team to defeat Green Bay in the playoffs at Lambeau, and I'm sure the weather will be better in Philadelphia than in Green Bay.) More importantly, Atlanta is 4-4 on the road this year, having lost their last three. The only Eagle loss at home was a meaningless game against the Bengals where they played the backups. Philadelphia has been the class of the NFC all season, and they will finally be rewarded with a trip to the Super Bowl. Prediction: Eagles.

Patriots @ Steelers
Let's face it, this is probably the real Super Bowl right here. As was true for the NFC in the 1980's and 90's, the cream of the AFC is far superior to the cream of the NFC this year, so whoever wins this game should win it all. I have gone both ways in the past with this game. At mid-season, I gave it to New England on the strength of experience, coaching, and Belichick's record in rematches. At the end of the season, I gave it to Pittsburgh on the strength of the Steeler passing game and the injuries in the Patriot secondary. Any questions about the ability of the Patriots to win with backups on defense were surely answered in the divisional playoff game where that beat up defense destroyed the best offense in the game. There have to be question marks about Roethlisberger's passing right now. He looked more like a rookie late in the season than he did earlier, throwing 5 interceptions in the last three games he played. The point about coaching is still valid. With a win, Belichick would tie the legendary Vince Lombardi for the best post-season record ever at 9-1, while Cowher sits at .500 with a record of losing AFC title games at home. (Ironically, the sole loss of Belichick's head coaching career came to Pittsburgh.) This is probably the best team, overall, Bill Cowher has coached. The two teams are very much mirrors of each other. Both are built in the classic style of aggressive defense, relentless running, and quality passing. Both teams win by controlling the ball on offense and shutting down the opponent's offense. On defense, the Steelers and Patriots ranked #1 and #4 respectively in points allowed, #1 and #6 in rushing yards allowed, and #10 and #7 in interceptions. On offense, the Steelers and Patriots were #2 and #7 in rushing yards per game, #11 and #4 in points scored, and #1 and #8 in time of possession. The one place there is a noticeable difference in the two teams statistically is in passing yards, where the Patriots ranked #11 and the Steelers were just #28. Though both teams score a lot of points, the game should be low scoring. Both teams are built for a ball control running game and field strong defenses. The main difference in the regular season matchup between these two teams was the absence of Corey Dillon for the Patriots, which took them out of their typical run-oriented offense, allowing Pittsburgh to monopolize time of possession, doing to the Patriots what the Patriots did to the Colts last week. This will not be an issue this week. The other main difference in that game was something I commented on in my Week 8 predictions:

What sets New England apart from the rest of the league is pre-game preparation. No team comes into a game better prepared for the opposition than New England. Their coaching staff breaks down film, reads tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses, and comes up with a game plan to exploit the weaknesses and avoid the strengths. The key to beating New England is to morph your game into something completely unexpected. This is why the unheralded Panthers put such a scare into New England in the Super Bowl. The were completely unprepared for a pass-heavy attack from Jake Delhomme. Crennel and the defense were forced to improvise a game plan, and a defense that manhandled the pass offense of Peyton Manning's Colts got beat play after play. The Steelers this week field a highly regarded rookie quarterback in only his fifth start. The Patriots will not have too much in the way of film to break down, so the defense will not have its normal preparation level, which makes it a tough game.

Without much game film at the time on Big Ben, the Patriots were not able to adequately game-plan for him. That will not be an issue this week. You can be assured the Patriots will find any and all weaknesses in his game, and figure out ways to exploit them. Therefore, the difference in the game will be the passing, and one has to trust Tom Brady much more than Ben Roethlisberger at this point. That said, one cannot forget what the Steeler defense did to Brady the last time, forcing two interceptions and a fumble. However, what is often overlooked in that game is Brady's 271 yards passing and 2 touchdown throws, all with only about 19 minutes of possession. So, it's not like Brady cannot handle today's version of the Steel Curtain. Prediction: Patriots.

Regular Season: 158-98
Playoffs: 6-2